Matchday 18 Bets
Matchday 18 Bets
All Moneylines are Early Payout; if a team goes up two goals it automatically pays.
Goalscorer bets for me are voided in case they do not start. Every Sportsbook is different. Waiting for lineups is advised before placing a bet on a goalscorer/assist.
Welcome back to more MLS Betting. I have a lot more to bet here today. First though I would like to outline the games I won’t be touching and/or have no lean on. Leaving you to use the data provided to find an edge there. I just couldn’t be asked here with these games:
RSL/NYC, ORL/COL, NER/MIA, SKC/ATX, POR/FCD, CLT/SEA
Aside from that, all these other games I quite like and will have a lot more money on the teams. I’m about done with updating the betting log and a successful weekend here pulls me above the water in terms of MLS betting.
Lets get in to the bets!
Nashville SC ML +180 1u
There’s a lot to like about this Nashville number at +180. They are defensively the best team in the league and I have no issues saying that. They’re up against Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernadeschi who alone on paper should be able to dominate, however, the two Italians are featured on a team with just 1.06 xG per game and .93 npxG. They' don’t have a creative presence in the midfield, they let teams out posses them, and are still pretty hurt. I like Nashville at some nice odds here and feel as though they’ll be willing to dismantle a team that lacks a lot of identity. I also will be throwing a unit on Jacob Shaffelburg to get a goal at +400 on PointsBet for 1u as well. Shaffelburg once played for Toronto FC so you have some narrative there. He’s due on xGoals with just three chances and usually is left open if teams heavily contest Mukhtar in open play. Shaffelburg is one of the teams best attacking players and carries a lot of value in his stats. I’m hoping he shows out for the Music City.
Houston Dynamo ML & San Jose Earthquakes ML (+752) 1u
The two biggest long odds home favorites and I’m taking them together for hopefully a very sneaky +752 win. Both teams are going against monstrous teams in LAFC and Philadelphia. It’s a tough ask to want both teams to win let alone one. San Jose have not lost at home this season and have great defensive metrics. They have recently been trending downwards in Chaos and have produced less and less xG. This heightened focus on defense and low xG production was due to the absences of Jonathan Mensah and Cade Cowell who should both be back in training and the former being likely to start with the latter getting minutes late. I like San Jose despite Philadelphia looking strong once again with Jack McGlynn in the lineup and reverting back to a 4-4-2 diamond. For the Dynamo, they are good at holding possession and at boast a good home record as well. Their xG doesn’t quite favor them, but what does is LAFC’s potential rotation and fatigue after a Sunday game, Wedensday Game, and now a game in Houston where they might feel some of the climate affect them as we know how hot the temperatures in Houston can be. Had Houston been on the road, I would have avoided them.
But, you can always convince me of home teams with some nice juiced odds. Houston and San Jose are those teams right now and I’m hoping they each grind it out for a win.
Chicago Fire/Columbus Crew Over 3.5 Goals +175 1u
Chicago has recently seen some low scoring affairs and low xG values over their last 10 matches. I think you can chalk that up to fixture congestion, different lineups and rotations, and they’re still without defender Carlos Teran. Teran remains out, but with no more congestion they should be a good enough side to score at home. They’ve scored 13 goals on just a total of 9 xG meaning they have some quality finishers and players that take chances. They’ll have an easier time against Columbus who are still without Milos Degenek and Gustavo Vallecilla. Columbus will play with the ball, they love to control it. Ultimately though, as the Rapids have shown, you only need one good press to win the ball off of the very shaky backline. Columbus on the other hand have Cucho and Zelarayan. The attacking numbers including field tilt, xG, dribbles per 90, and pressing shows that they have the tools needed to be a very successful squad. It is just that darn pesky defense getting in the way of everything. With everything said above, I’m also placing a unit on Columbus to win at +170 hoping they can claim the win after the dust settling.
And that should be it. I’ll post a goalscorers parlay in the chat but these are my leans for today. To recaps
Nashville ML (+180) 1u
Shaffelburg AGS (+400) (PointsBet) 1u
Dynamo ML & Quakes ML +752 1u
Fire and Crew Over 3.5 +175 1u
Columbus Crew ML +170 1u
BOL!