With Matchday 17 in the books, Major League Soccer has concluded it’s first half of the season. A half that featured a lot of ugly. This season, more than ever, has been akin to TMZoccer with the amount of controversy and utter chaos off the field while on the pitch are mangled messes of meaningless possession games, 0-0 score lines featuring timid teams, and, the dark cloud of this season: the injuries. The laundry list of controversies surrounding the league have not helped and in fact have served to be distractions from the few teams who actually are exciting. From fan violence in Toronto, racial slurs being dished in New Jersey, protests in Carson, and betting scandals in Commerce City: the league has been nothing short of problematic these past few months. Why does all this bear mentioning?
Well, every season year after year gets a preview. We also as writers put a lot of emphasis into the week to week. But why not half seasons? Officially, this is a midseason preview for the rest of the season with a midseason review coming out this weekend before Matchday 18. This piece is mainly meant to pose a question to a wide group of teams. In an effort to actually get this piece out and not die in my Substack drafts, the following teams have been grouped as so.
Groupings
I’m splitting the table in half. I know that MLS allows for 9 teams from each conference to make the playoffs but we’re going to call the line right at 7. Teams above 7 and better will be categorized as “Prime Position” teams. These are teams who have a very strong shot at making the MLS playoffs and can remain in the driver’s seat for the rest of the season if they improve on the following categories.
Eye test - They look like a competent footy team. They may not exceed in the stats but they look the part.
Metrics - They possess very strong stats leading in key categories that would lead a team to success. It may not always materialize in the eye but the underlying stats like this team.
Depth - The team has a strong cast of supporting players. In case of possible injury or suspension, their rotations don’t lose a step in quality.
But Juanners, my team isn’t in the top 7 for either conference. If this is the case, your team is considered “Under The Gun”. These teams are on the outside looking in due to various reasons. They can either miss the playoffs and have an early offseason to plan again in 2024; These teams can find themselves in playoff position only to get bounced by the first seed; Or, they may be teams that figured it out just in time, have gotten hot, and provide some MLS shock in the post season. Either way, like the poker position, it’s not a real good spot to be in. These teams are bad because they:
Injuries - Key players are hurt and massively hurt the teams chances of winning or an injury bug has kept the roster thin.
Quality - How good the club’s coach or roster have been. It could be one or the other…or in some cases: both.
Misfortune - Teams that on the stat sheet have been hard done by. It could be a snake bitten forward, losses to low xG teams, or late equalizers/game losing goals that were statistical anomalies.
These are what our plots show us.
Prime Position Teams
Under The Gun
Each question is geared towards long term success. How these club answer these questions will be an indicator of the season they’ll have and also works as a way for me to hold them up to the question of whether or not they answered it. First, lets discuss the subpar teams and then move on to the teams above them.
Quality: New York City FC
Remember when these guys won the league? And then their squad got axed and now here we are. NYCFC are one of the most healthy teams in the league and despite that find themselves here. The roster at the moment doesn’t lack quality, but as the Spanish saying goes: es un equipo de nombres, no de hombres. In short, the team is mostly good on paper but in the games they lack that dawg and tactical identity. The recent loss of Thiago Martins has had an impact but can anyone consider him a top 5 center back in the league? Combined with an out of position Richie Ledezma, Talles Magno who hasn’t found form, and Santiago Rodriguez playing at a good-but not elite-MLS level is why NYC find themselves here. NYC’s biggest question for me is who is your talisman? Is it the return of Taty Castellanos who enjoyed a productive time for Spanish side Girona or is it someone else? And more importantly, are NYC a talisman away from competing for the playoffs? The talisman for this team doesn’t necessarily have to be a player. The questions surrounding Nick Cushing are valid and he may be the next manager heading for the exit.
Quality & Injuries : New York Red Bulls, Austin FC
Sticking in New York Jersey, the Red Bulls found themselves hurting throughout the last few months. Add to that the suspension of Vanzeir (more on that later) and the sacking of coach Gerhard Struber and this team has gone through a big shift since the start of the MLS season. In Austin’s case, they have very limited depth and an idea of how to play without key pieces Leo Vaisanen and Sebastian Driussi. Both sides are slowly coming together with aforementioned players returning to the fold. The main question for both these teams is how do you build upon the identity of your team and where does that come from? Does it come from the coach or players? And how much of the injured players are a factor moving forward? Both sides should have no excuse moving forward with both being right around the heap for playoff contention.
Injuries: Inter Miami, Portland Timbers.
During the early part of the season, Portland looked to be a team that was absolutely cursed; and they still might be. Weekly injuries to key players have hindered Portland massively. In the case of Inter Miami, they’ve had a big blow to one big key piece in Brazilian midfielder Gregore who was a rock in midfield and the biggest factor for Miami’s success early in the season. They each have their own circumstances, but my question for both teams is does the production come from within or externally? For Miami of course the hope is that Messi can be the turnaround meanwhile the Timbers, according to some within that space, will be active in the transfer window. Whoever they bring in, or whoever steps up, the holes for each team are because of injuries and had they’d been healthier, they’d be a lot more of a prime position. Especially Inter Miami.
Injuries & Misfortune: Sporting Kansas City, Charlotte FC
Two genuinely fun teams. They’ve each struggled to get into form but the metrics and underlying data love them. They love them even more with key players returning. For SKC, it’s the duo of Alan Pulido and Gadi Kinda. For Charlotte, it’s really Guzman Corujo who they are missing. They’ll have those key players back and now it’s really about getting over their bad starts to the season, finding health, and living up to the xGoals and xPoints. The question now for each is can they do that?. Both feel reasonable to put in a little future bet and just hope to see them get hot towards the end of the season.
Misfortune: Chicago Fire, Houston Dynamo, Orlando City
These teams each have a unique misfortune. The question for them is how do they turn around their luck? For Orlando, it’s the bad string of home results, for the Dynamo its on the road, and for Chicago it’s the Jekyll and Hyde nature of their season; sometimes they’re amazing and sometimes they’re bad. Chicago have had some players injured, yes, but none that are clear cut game changers. It feels like the roster over there is missing a guy in the midst of Shaqiri’s poor season so far. Houston and Orlando just need to find results in their respective weak spot. All three of these teams have a case to sneak into the play offs.
Misfortune & Quality: LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, CF Montreal.
Of the three teams here, CF Montreal probably should really be in the quality bubble, however, I want to point out that they started the season on the road. The first 9 games of their season featured just 3 home games. They’ve made the most of their home form and who’s to say they wouldn’t be like Houston: figuring it out on the road. As opposed to: wow we’ve rarely played in front of our home crowd and we’ve been unlucky enough to have a poor schedule. They’ve made the most of their home games and is the only reason they’re not more in the Quality. IT should still remain true, for all three teams, that the backups and roster depth is a little subpar. They have absolute ballers and high level MLS performers in Jefferson Savarino for RSL, Riqui Puig for the G’s and Bryce Duke for CF Montreal. However, the options behind them have been less than favorable and their depth has led them down. For all these teams, my big question is who steps up for the star? All these players need a sidekick of some sort OR they need their side kick to kick it into gear. Montreal had Romell Quioto and his side kick Djordje Mihailovic. This time, Chinoso Offor has stepped up and if he and Duke continue to build chemistry they’ll make a good push for the playoffs. For LA Galaxy, they need Chicharito to be the Shaq to Puig’s Bryant. Chicharito has just one goal and despite the high xG that the Galaxy is creating, he’s not finishing. Real Salt Lake look to have their guy incoming in Cristian “Chicho” Arango, the former LAFC star forward. They have every reason to keep building on their quality.
Misfortune & Injuries & Quality: Colorado Rapids and Toronto FC.
Neither team looks to have benefitted from the Ralph Priso and Mark Anthony Kaye trade. Each side has unique injury stories with Toronto missing more of the “sum of their parts” and Colorado missing two big contributors in Diego Rubio and Jack Price. Despite the losses, both sides have had their depth tested and the depth has let the team down. For Colorado, the attacking quality is not suffice and for Toronto their defense is fragile. Their misfortune comes from the fact that despite the loss in quality and depth, they each have appropriate gripes with the way their games have played out. Toronto have 7 out of 17 games where they were the better team in terms of xGoals. They’ve had 0-0 games where their attacking talent should have been better. For Colorado, their road xG and chaotic-but often inconsistent- style of play was good against teams below them and in accordance with the eye test: looked the part in bits and pieces. However, for each of those games are games where teams smash and grab them. And with all their xG at home, 11.9, they’ve only scored 5 goals and have led at home for just 14 minutes. The season looks bleak for both sides. My question is when do you give the kids the baton? Both teams have very good academies. Toronto have produced but have failed to nurture a lot of their younger talent. Meanwhile, Colorado’s MLS Next Pro team is first in their league. It’s time for these teams to start pivoting towards the next season and to do that, it helps to analyze and give young players minutes. Toronto have had to because of injuries and Colorado has called up players purely for bench' sake. But if both these teams take their time to find a player within their system that can be a huge value piece in the future, now is the time.
Prime Position Teams
Depth: Minnesota United, FC Dallas
Both teams have had big contributions from the bench and depth pieces have been steady when called upon. Dallas is starting to trend towards being a mess of a squad with the latest injury bug, but by and large they’ve done well to surround Jesus Ferreira and Alan Velasco with talent. The same could be said for Minnesota who lost Reynoso and then managed to be fine without him for a brief moment. Reynoso has now returned from his personal issues in Argentina around the same time Robin Lod is sidelined. But don’t fear, because in the midst of them losing Lod they had Korean attacker Jeong Sangbin in the lineup. It’s never really looked bad for Minnesota and for both these teams, it’s figuring out how do you take that next step towards serious contention? Even when Dallas was healthy, they didn’t really impress metrically or to any casual view. Minnesota meanwhile have reached their ceiling with Adrian Heath. They’re only as good as their manager has taken them to and it’s a COVID conference final. They lack that manager with real pedigree and gumption.
Depth and Metrics: LAFC, Nashville SC
It speaks volumes that the two teams who, in my opinion, aren’t passing the eye test are some of the most well put together defensive units in the league. On paper, it’s silly to exclude LAFC in the eye-test category but there have been moments in watching this team specifically in the MLS season where they are spinning their wheels. Despite being one of the top attacking sides on the road, they’ve failed to beat teams on the road like Colorado and Seattle and at home couldn’t finish SKC (Add to that the lack of finishing quality in last night’s 0-0 draw to Atlanta). Even in their game against Nashville, they couldn’t break down their defense. For Nashville, their plan still, remains given it to Hany. Both players remain part of the conversation thanks to their elite goal scoring nature: what do you do without them? If either of them goes down with injury, LAFC will most likely be able to replace his production with tactics and change of personnel. I have no idea what calibre team Nashville is without Mukhtar. Either way, neither side can really afford to lose their stars; their success lays heavily on their shoulders.
Metrics: DC United, Seattle Sounders, Vancouver Whitecaps
All three teams are coached well, they have more of an identity than a lot of other teams, and they have great role players around the field. The rosters for all three these sides have been built well with injuries being the biggest defining factor for their lack of success so far. (In Vancouver’s case, its the lackluster season of major acquisition Sergio Cordova.) The metrics love these teams, but they just cannot get results to go their way. We saw early what this Sounders team can be when they beat SKC and Colorado early in the season. DC with Taxi and Benteke are fantastic. Vancouver are putting up touchdowns at home. Now, it’s finding that form without depending too much on key players and figuring out how do you grind out and get results? This is more so a question posed to DC United and Vancouver who are the most recently assembled team. Brian Schmetzer is no stranger to this and has been here before with almost the same group of players; but can he do it again? Schmetzer had a longer leash last year after winning the CCL. Does it shorten at all amidst a poor run of form? Two teams to definitely keep an eye on.
Metrics & Eye Test: Columbus Crew, St Louis City, Atlanta United
All of these teams are fun to watch, are favored by the stats, but have had players injured prevent them from being dominant forces in the league. Columbus is lacking their defensive depth, Atlanta without Almada and/or Gigi look helpless, and St Louis rely on Klauss a lot more than anyone gave him credit for. The question is will these teams be healthy come the playoffs? If there were three teams I’d bet on to be in the playoffs, it’s these guys. Now, I’m betting on them to continue being favored metrically, continue to play a fun style of footy, and more importantly: get healthy. The earliest you get healthy, the more momentum you can build to spring in to a play off run.
Eye Test: New England Revolution, San Jose Earthquakes
Carles Gil and Cristian Espinoza are making it look easy for their clubs. They are both part of teams that like to have the ball. They play with gravitas on the field. Similar to Denis Bouanga and Hany Mukhtar, they are power house players. However, they are not the only ones on the team who can make an impact. Jamiro Monteiro has looked really good now that he’s not having to worry so much about defensive duties. Carlos Gruezo may go down as the best signing of the window. The defense is stacked with three capable full backs and you have attacking options in Ebobisse and either Kikanovic or Cowell- both of whom are young and hungry. For the Earthquakes, they are missing some key players like Dylan Borrero and Henry Kessler, both of whom are injured. But of the players available, Djordje Petrovic, Brandon Bye, Dejuan Jones, Noel Buck, and Bobby Wood are all DOGS. These teams are in great positions moving forward and the only question really is what elevates you in the second part of the season?. A lot of teams in prior years find themselves just like San Jose and New England and then proceed to implode. For San Jose, one of Cade Cowell or Benjamin Kikanovic need to be deadly ahead of goal. For New England it’s getting Giacomo Vrioni to prove his hype. Maybe it’s a second half season poised for Gustavo Bou to take over again. Either way, the attack for both teams is almost there. It’s now elevating their game to get them over the finish line.
Eye Test & Depth: Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia started off rough due to some CCL rotation and fixture congestion. With that behind them, the Union have restarted their path of dominance. They are unbeaten in their last 9 and even with midweek games have been cruising. They have benefitted from other teams maybe at a weaker point than them, but you play the games as they come. Philly look and are every bit of a playoff team but aren’t going to be flashy in the metrics. They’re just a solid team. Philly are one of those teams that have very little questions. They have the depth and talent to go for another MLS Cup. Their biggest obstacle may be other strong Eastern Conference teams, so the big questions here is how do you separate yourself from the rest of the pack? The Union will be bolstered by Jack McLynn and go back to their dominant 4-4-2 diamond. They can go to their 3 back which has had great success. The attack is gelling and the defense, again, smothers so viciously. They’ve been here before. And had they not had fixture congestion, I’d place them right in the middle for a team that hits on all three. For now though, Eye Test and Depth is exactly where you want to be.
Eye Test & Depth & Metrics: FC Cincinnati
So, because Cincy benefitted from not having fixture congestion, everything mentioned above for Philly applies here. Even with Brenner’s departure, Cincy still look really fucking good. They play a good style of footy and are often scoring goals in bunches. They have been building to this for quite a while as someone who has seen the trajectory of Pat Noonan. It’s not too long ago that Jurgen Locadia came to join from a Premier League team. Jaap Stam ran this team to the ground. And with 3 back to back wooden spoons they’re now here. A team that has defensive solidity thanks to Matt Miazga; a team with a finisher who, yes has been inconsistent, has a real goal scoring pedigree; and above all else have a creative engine running the entire thing in Luciano Acosta. Their stats indicate a very good attacking side with plenty of chances created. The question for them is how do you sustain it?. They have already begun answering that question by signing Gabonese striker Aaron Boupendza so if he can be productive like Brenner was the team will be good moving forward.
With the defeat of LAFC in the CONCACAF Champions League (now called the CONCACAF Champions Cup), in the rearview; it feels fitting to call that loss a midseason finale. LAFC started the year hot. They were not necessarily the most dominant in terms volumetric chances; they carried a lot more poise and lethality. Denis Bouanga has planted his flag down as one of the best finishers in the league and very quickly on his way to a very justified MVP claim. They then grinded out their home games while expansion darlings St Louis stunned the league with their imminent rise. They are still the only team to hand FC Cincinnati a defeat this season. A Cincinnati team who are in prime position to win a domestic treble in MLS after their victory over the Pittsburgh Riverhounds in the Open Cup and an impressive eight points above the next highest team Nashville SC. Nashville, who are finding great success with Hany Mukhtar who year after year continues to prove his immense quality and poise. These four teams speak to me mostly as the teams with very prominently storylines and all play some good footy. Now, with LAFC’s loss in the final, you have this sort of new beast that may come back into the league with a big chip on their soldier.
Every team has and/or has been hurt with very few that are still “alive” as I say; those immune to the bug have reaped the benefits. Add to that the heavy amount of fixture congestion and this first half of MLS as a viewing product and brand of soccer was anything but pretty and exciting. This summer has seen teams look more and more like what their identities indicate. We know what kind of style each team possesses and how they like to play with the ball, if they’re direct and quick in transition, if they sit back and absorb the brunt, and if they lack any creative attacking bite: we have sample sizes that can tell us *almost* everything about a team.
There are however some teams who’s injury woes and fixture congestion and struggles absolutely axe their chances; and they’re still going through it. Toronto FC, Colorado Rapids, Inter Miami, Austin FC, FC Dallas, SKC, Seattle, New York Red Bulls and Columbus have had injuries to core players and strong pieces to their season been sidelined to injury.
Conclusion and Looking Ahead
With the MLS season past the midway point, we have Leagues Cup on the way in the Summer which will be an interesting time as it is the competitions first. We have the summer transfer window which always promises to shake things up. Plenty of season left and with more data samples, more team stats, and injury clears, the best still feels yet to come.